If regional tensions spiral out of control, how various Iran-backed groups in the ‘resistance coalition’ might react and how their actions might affect the security and geopolitical interests of GCC members remain a major concern for Riyadh’s policymakers. .
As regional tensions rise, these issues will put the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement process to the test. But basically everything depends on what kind of response Israel will give now. Al-Thani said that if the Israelis show restraint (be it through limited-scale military operations or minimal casualties), then the existing pattern of Saudi-Iranian relations will remain unchanged.
But we have to understand, we are in an uncertain situation and at any moment the situation can quickly turn ugly. It is important to understand that deterrence psychology was not the only factor behind Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel. Through this, Tehran wants to send an important message to its neighbors about the range and accuracy of its weapons.
At the same time, they want to show the GCC that they can challenge Washington’s commitment to Israel’s security.
● Giorgio Cafiro CEO of Gulf Estates Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk assessment firm
Taken from Middle East Eye, translation: Sarfuddin Ahmed
