Will Syria be the new battlefield?

Many experts believe that the impact of the Gaza war on Syria may be too great.

The incident comes a week after the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. At the end of Ramadan, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad took to the streets with his wife and family. He attended prayers and walked the streets of the city.

But a few days ago, a foreign country (Israel) attacked his country and allegedly killed some of Iran’s top generals, even then he didn’t seem upset.

“That was Assad’s intention to send the message,” said Haid, a consulting fellow in the Middle East and North America program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

He said, ‘This is what Assad wanted to show, that everything is going well in Syria. Syria will not back down.

According to Heide, ‘It’s not too surprising. Assad has distanced himself from Gaza since the conflict began. He is trying to show himself neutral in this matter.’

There are many reasons behind this. A civil war has been going on in Syria for a long time. It is not possible for the local army to counter attack. Syria’s economy is in shambles. In this situation, taking a neutral position on Gaza may benefit Assad in terms of foreign policy.

Relations between Syria and Iran

In 2012, Iran got involved in the Syrian civil war. They start trying to defeat the opposing forces. Instead Syria allowed them to use land to get to Lebanon.

Hezbollah is Iran’s strongest supporter in Lebanon. Hezbollah also has a presence in Syria. Iran and Hezbollah consider Israel and the United States to be their enemies.

Iran’s presence in Syria worries Israel. Israel is concerned about Iran’s military and infrastructure near its border. They regularly hit Iranian infrastructure in Syria.

Think tank International Crisis Group explains, “Israel’s primary goal is to end Iran’s military presence in Syria.” Ensuring that Iran cannot build a military infrastructure. Israel has struck more than a hundred times to cut off Hezbollah’s supply lines through Syria. The number of these attacks has increased since 2017.” According to observers, Israel has attempted to strike almost every week.

Why does Syria not retaliate?

A civil war has been going on in Syria for a long time. They are busy for their survival. So it is not possible for them to repel Israel. According to analysts, if they try to do that, they could launch rockets too high, which will land on bare ground. And Israel doesn’t attack Syrian assets, they aim to destroy Iran’s infrastructure.

However, after Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, Israel’s attacks on Syria became more regular. Hamas has been declared a terrorist organization by the US, EU and several other countries. In the past, Israel did not go far in killing Hezbollah or the Iranians. But Heide thinks they’ve changed that strategy now.

He wrote, “Since October 7, Israel has now taken a strategy to kill Iran’s leadership in Syria.”

Israel’s defense minister said, ‘Wherever Hezbollah operates from, we will reach there. It could be Beirut, Damascus or any other place.’

On April 1, the Iranian embassy in Damascus was attacked. Allegedly, Israel did this. Then on April 13, Iran attacked Israel with rockets and missiles.

Experts believe that there will be no more direct attacks between Israel and Iran. But the indirect attack will continue according to them.

International Crisis Group consultant Darin Khalifa said, ‘There is a saying that it doesn’t cost much to attack Syria. So I think the strikes on Iran’s infrastructure in Syria will continue. And because it is happening in Syria, it would be wrong to think that there will be no regional reaction.’

Source: Deutsche Welle

(Dhaka Times/April 25/MR)