Who will save Putin in the mud?

Who will save Putin in the mud?
Who will save Putin in the mud?

Henry David Thoreau, an American writer of the middle of the 19th century, wrote in one of his famous books that most people are reckless in nature. This reckless nature is going to consume Putin as well. As such, he is now trying to get out of the Ukraine war trap of his own making.

Russia’s Pride Stunned by the Moscow debacle, Putin maintains a mysterious silence about his special military operations. He did not want a long standoff, nor did he expect a car bomb to explode in Moscow. A humiliating and surprising attack on Crimean fortresses was not expected of him.

Did Putin expect his 80,000 soldiers to die? With it faded Putin’s unrealistic dream of a ‘Greater Russia’. All his earned reputation is gone, but the killer and peace-destroyer is still alive.

It will not work if it gets stuck in the sand, because the economy and military manpower are being consumed by the chaff fire of Western sanctions, and the logistics are running out. So what to do?

He can declare a complacent victory by saying that the NATO threat has been mitigated. He will seek a compromise to digest the occupied territories. But he knows for sure that Kiev will not willingly agree to such a proposal. As a master gambler, he can leverage his staunch loyalist, Alexander Lukoshenko, to launch a second front along the northern Belarus-Ukraine border, which he fled after taking a heavy beating last February. But Mr. Military experts doubt whether Lukoshenko’s generals have the willpower. It is not easy for him to escape. As pressure mounts on him to end the stalemate, he will try to dampen Kiev’s resistance by increasing the burden of war on European countries that support Ukraine.

He has already started it. Due to the war, people in most European countries are struggling to meet the cost of fuel and the cost of living. Everyone is worried about it. In the coming winter season, Europe may be stuck in the coldest cold war ever.

He is adept at creating cracks in a united Europe, he has many ways of clinging to power – subterfuge and subterfuge. Europe has been plagued with various geopolitical problems since the legacy of the Soviet era. Unsurprisingly, Russia has many allies and supporters across politically ambivalent Europe.
Will his friends in the West come to rescue him from the imminent threat of the East? He has already buried dictator Lukashenko in his pocket. Putin did all he could to protect Lukashenko, who won the fraudulent 2020 election, from mass protests, and managed to preserve his throne. Mr. Putin’s instructions. It is only natural that Lukashenko will draw his sword from its sheath and show his charisma.

Putin’s ‘Trojan horse’ Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is staying in the belly of the European Union. Like other far-rights in Europe, he is busy spreading intolerant nationalism and racism. He repeatedly obstructed the European Union’s imposition of sanctions on Russia. Last month he signed an exclusive gas purchase deal with Russia. Westerners don’t believe him. The Putin-fueled fall of Bulgaria’s reformist government last June and subsequent talks on improving relations with Moscow are making Europe’s divisions evident.

Putin has many supporters in Italy. Moscow has long-standing ties to the leaders of the two right-wing parties hoping to form a coalition government after the upcoming elections. Matteo Salvini’s League formed an alliance with Putin’s United Russia in 2017. Putin also has a warm personal relationship with Forza Italia’s Silvio Berlusconi. Mario Draghi, Italy’s ousted prime minister, took a hard line against Ukraine.

Far-right and far-left revolutionary parties apply varying degrees of the same tone to Putin’s ideology and conservative social values. They speak Putin’s language about the European Union. A 2016 review by the European Council on Foreign Relations identified radical groups in Germany, France, Austria and Belgium as pro-Russian. United Kingdom’s Ukip is also in their party.

The groups work to legitimize Kremlin policies and spread disinformation on behalf of Russia. Sometimes they try to bring the internal debates of Europe to Russia. These trends are very likely in Putin’s world.

Putin can also count on mainstream politicians outside the EU and his sympathetic Serbian President Aleksandar Vesek. Opponents deride him as a ‘little Putin’. Russia has religious, political and historical ties with the ethnic Slavonic Serbia; Both are anti-NATO. Will they forget NATO’s bombing of Belgrade in 1999?

UK and EU leaders fear that Putin may choose the volatile Western Balkans to divert world attention.

Kosovo is turning into turmoil again, fueled by anger among ethnic Serbs. Serbian President Alessandar Vesek has threatened to intervene against international peacekeepers. He said, ‘If NATO does not come forward to protect our people from torture and killing, we will.’ Bosnian Serb leaders close to Moscow have resumed threats.

Divided Moldova and Georgia are also in potential conflict zones with the presence of Russian troops on their soil. This month, Putin deployed hypersonic missiles to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad in the heart of Europe to intimidate NATO neighbor Estonia under the pretext of protecting the rights of ethnic Russians.

Given the fear, instability and economic pressure that Putin has created, countries outside of Europe will at least think twice before antagonizing him. His veto often renders the UN Security Council ineffective. Now he is aiming to turn the Ukraine issue into a showdown between the West and the rest of the world at the crucial post-pandemic G20 summit in Bali in November, along with Xi Jinping. His arguments are hollow and ill-informed.

Putin’s fiddling with the captured Zaporizhia nuclear power plant proves that he will do anything to win. Day by day he is becoming more terrifying and dangerous.

The article is in Bengali

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