On April 19, the general elections began in neighboring India. About 97 crore registered voters will exercise their right to vote in 5.5 lakh EVMs in this 44-day election. Ballot papers are no longer voted in India and no one makes a fuss about it; As seen in Bangladesh. Voters will elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s Parliament. The entire voting period will end on June 1. Counting of votes will end on June 7. Any party or coalition will need the support of 272 MPs to form the government. As a multi-party democracy, various national and regional parties compete for votes in Indian elections. But two major alliances face off as direct rivals to lead the nation—the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a 26-party coalition called the Indian National Development-Inclusive Alliance, led by the main opposition party. Indian National Congress. No conscious person expects that any one party will single-handedly win the majority of seats in this election.
India’s elections are exceptional compared to almost every other country in the world for many reasons. India is now an emerging economic superpower of the world. No country in the world has so many voters as India. For such a long period of time no polling is held in any country. No country has so many political parties participating in elections at the local level. Actually India is many countries within one country. The language, culture or history-tradition of one region has nothing in common with the language of another region. The country has dozens of distinct ethnic groups. There are some areas in Northeast India where people are reluctant to accept Indian rule. Manipur, Nagaland is one of them. Voting was also held there with the help of security forces. This time some events happened before the election; Which has damaged the poll campaigns and electoral politics of various parties. In our neighboring state of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has been in power for a long time. Earlier, the state was ruled by the Left Front from 1977 to 2011. After Mamata’s defeat by Trinamool in 2011, their sun has set. There is no possibility of their return to power in the near future. Even before that, Congress was in government in West Bengal for a long time; That is history now. Whichever party is in power in West Bengal has tried to maintain good relations with Bangladesh largely in their own interests. A slight exception is the Mamata-led Trinamool. Due to Mamta, the issue of Teesta river water distribution has been hanging till now and there is no less talk about it not only in the media, but also in the socio-political sphere of the two countries.
The two parties are under some pressure ahead of the ongoing elections. Its a Trinamool Congress. Some top leaders of their party have been detained for corruption for some time. Among them, there are local level leaders who could be candidates in this election. Some have left the party under a lot of pressure. Despite that, Mamata did not lose courage. He has an acceptance among the people; Because his alternative is not yet developed in West Bengal. The ruling BJP at the center is trying but is yet to make much headway. The existence of Congress is not visible in this state. The number of Muslims in India is about 20 crores. Whoever is in government wants their security guaranteed. It is true, they are uncomfortable with the Hindutva slogans of the ruling BJP; There is also a lack of security in some cases. However, they have no other options. They can sit at home on polling day without voting.
Delhi Aam Aadmi Party President Arvind Kejriwal. He is also the Chief Minister of Delhi. Very popular with common people. He was arrested a few days ago for corruption. He is unable to participate in the elections, but his party is participating. On the other hand, in West Bengal, several heavyweight leaders of the Trinamool have been jailed on various charges, but the party has fielded candidates in all the constituencies. Even though Pakistan’s Imran Khan is in prison, his party has participated in the elections. This is the difference between the BNP of Bangladesh and the politicians of India and Pakistan. Neither the Trinamool nor the Aam Aadmi Party has agreed not to participate in the elections unless their leaders are released. Nothing can be a more suicidal decision for a political party than boycotting elections. At the moment it is a bit risky to predict but from experience it can be said that Trinamool in West Bengal, Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and BJP-led coalition NDA are more likely to win. So if it happens then it is assumed that Narendra Modi will sit as the Prime Minister of India for the third time in a row.
Just as India has a lot of interest in Bangladesh elections, Bangladesh has a similar interest in India’s elections. Just as India has major trade interests with Bangladesh, it also has political and security interests. Bangladesh imports a significant amount of industrial raw materials from India in addition to daily necessities. The contours of the relationship between the two countries are multidimensional. Using Bangladesh’s ports, railways, roads and waterways, India can easily and cheaply communicate with its seven northeastern states and transport their goods. In the past, Pakistan’s ISI used Bangladesh to liberally support separatist terrorist groups in Northeast India when the BNP-led four-party coalition was in power. Smuggling arms through Bangladesh was a regular occurrence for these separatists. In 2004, the seizure of 10 truckloads of weapons in Chittagong was a big proof of that. That chapter has come to an end after Sheikh Hasina formed the government.
India’s several vexing unresolved issues with Bangladesh remain. Among these are the problems of balanced water distribution of some rivers including Teesta. Just as it depends on the central government of India, it also depends on the sumati of the state governments. It must be remembered that only a Mamata Banerjee can stop the Teesta water distribution agreement at the last minute. In 1996, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina signed a historic 30-year Ganga water sharing agreement with India after coming to power for the first time. At that time, a coalition government led by Deve Gowda was in power in Delhi. Left Front was in West Bengal. The contract will expire in 2026. What will happen then will be decided by the governments of the two countries. A lot of help was received from the West Bengal government while making this agreement. If the Trinamool government is formed, it remains a doubtful question whether that support will be available or not. Bangladeshi citizens are regularly losing their lives in firing by Indian security guards at the border. Regular meetings are held between the top level officials of the border guarding forces of the two countries. It was decided that there would be no more killings on the border. But it has no reflection in reality. Stopping border killings is the urgent need of the hour. It was also said, rubber bullets will be used if necessary to reduce border killings to zero. There is also an urgent need for an end to long procedures for Bangladeshis to obtain visas to visit India.
India is an important neighbor of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is also a very important neighbor for India for many reasons. A stable government in India is also important for its neighbors for many reasons. There are also multidimensional socio-economic and security factors. If there is a stable government in Bangladesh, India will benefit more because of its national security. No country in the region understands better than India that nothing can be more valuable than national security. Bangladesh is not only India’s neighbor but also its strategic ally. In the ongoing elections of India, the people of their country will choose their representatives and they will form the government. However, Bangladesh will expect a quick solution to all past problems. Whoever wins the Lok Sabha elections and forms the government, their aim should be to focus on the interests and needs of both. It is our hope that the friendly relations between Bangladesh and India will go higher on the basis of equality.
- Educator Political and social analyst
Tags: Bangladesh neighbor India strategic ally
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