You may be surprised, how will Bangladesh’s Champions Trophy be confirmed if they win against Sri Lanka? Still, the two teams have one more match left. Yes, defeating Sri Lanka today will ensure that Bangladesh will play in the Champions Trophy. But Bangladesh must win today if they want to maintain that chance.
The top eight teams of the World Cup will get a chance in the next Champions Trophy. The top six teams are beyond the reach of Bangladesh. Sri Lanka and Netherlands are in seventh and eighth with 4 points. Bangladesh is tied with 2 points. At the bottom is England with two points.
It can be calculated that Bangladesh will win the next two matches and none of the remaining three teams will win more than one match. But it’s better to be realistic. And if that is the case, Bangladesh’s chances of victory against the in-form Australia on Pune’s small boundary ground on November 11 are almost nil. In that case, Bangladesh must win against Sri Lanka today.
Because Sri Lanka’s points will be 6 if they win today. And on November 8, England and the Netherlands face each other. Whichever team wins that day, Bangladesh’s chances of staying in the top eight will be over. If the Netherlands win, they will also have 6 points. Then there will be 2025 Champions Trophy without Bangladesh and England. And if England wins, the one who will be behind in terms of run rate among these three teams will be eliminated.
Bangladesh will not be safe even if they win again against Sri Lanka. Not just points, runrate will also factor into Champions Trophy calculations. From this point of view, the good news for Bangladesh is that the run rate of the other three teams is within reach of Bangladesh. And to go to the Champions League, you have to be ahead of at least two teams.
However, Bangladesh is not able to have any influence in the Netherlands-England match, there is no point in waiting for that match. And Bangladesh’s run rate gap with England is so narrow that if they beat Netherlands by a very small margin, they will lag Bangladesh in run rate.
It is better to do what is possible, i.e. try to beat Sri Lanka in run rate. Yes, if two teams get the same result (win or lose) in the next match, then the difference between the two matches will also affect the run rate. The next match of the Lankans is New Zealand, which has lost four matches in a row. On the other hand, Bangladesh’s match is against Australia. So the thought of increasing the run rate against Sri Lanka is more realistic.
Today, Bangladesh won the toss and chose to field. Captain Shakib Al Hasan spoke about the dew on his decision to bowl on the Delhi wicket. Although batting first in this World Cup is proving to be a good decision again and again. But that is a different discussion.
Today, Bangladesh has to keep in mind not the run gap, but the ball count. That is, Sri Lanka should be held back and score runs with the ball in hand.
Let’s say, Sri Lanka scored 300 runs against Bangladesh today. In that case, Bangladesh has to finish the match in 41 overs 2 balls to overtake the Lankans in run rate. Even if Sri Lanka score 250, Bangladesh will have to finish the match in 41 overs in 2 balls. That is, today the batsmen of Bangladesh have to do something very great.
And if the Bangladeshi bowlers regain their composure today and restrict New Zealand to 200 runs, then the work of the Bangladeshi batsmen will remain the same. In that case, the match has to be finished in the 42nd over. But you will get 1 more ball in your hand. That is, Bangladesh will advance in run rate if they win in 41 overs 3 balls. Interestingly, even if the Lankans are bowled out for 100 runs, Bangladesh’s target will remain the same. That means there will be a chance to be ahead up to 41.3 balls.
If Bangladesh does not win against Sri Lanka today, then Bangladesh’s chances of overtaking the Lakhs on points are over.