ICICI Bank Q4 Results Preview: Private lender ICICI Bank of India will report results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on Saturday, April 27.
However, analysts have different expectations for the bank’s net profit growth, forecasting a 4.6% to 17% year-on-year increase.
Margin trajectory and outlook, as well as deposit traction, will be among the key indicators to monitor, they said.
Below is a brief summary of brokerage expectations for ICICI Bank’s fourth quarter financial year 2024 results:
Nomura
The brokerage’s figures were higher than estimates. ICICI Bank’s net profit is expected to reach Rs 10,540 crore, up 16% year-on-year from Rs 9,121.9 crore in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Hence, this would be 3% higher than the net profit of Rs 10,271.5 crore in Q3 of 3FY24.
From an operating perspective, Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to grow by 8% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs 19,010 crore. Meanwhile, core pre-provision profit may grow 6% YoY and 1% QoQ to Rs 14,710 crore.
BNP Parishad
In contrast, BNP Paribas expects ICICI Bank’s net profit to grow just 4.7% this year, down 7% month-on-month to Rs 9,551.6 billion.
The report said NII and PPOP are likely to grow by around 6% to Rs 18,798.9 billion and Rs 14,666.6 billion respectively.
NII for Q4 FY23 and Q3 FY24 was Rs 17,666.8 crore and Rs 18,678.6 crore respectively.
Equirus Securities
Equirus expects ICICI Bank’s advances and deposits to grow 19% and 17% YoY Brokerages said loan growth could be driven by the retail segment.
However, it expects net interest margin (NIM) to decline sequentially by 10 basis points to 4.3% in Q4FY24 from 4.4% in Q3FY24.
Its net profit was Rs 10,571.9 crore, NII was Rs 18,850.9 crore and PPOP was Rs 14,967.5 crore.
“Key factors to watch are home loan business trends as well as commentary on capital expenditure cycle, expected growth and retail non-performing asset (NPA) trends,” it said.
Kotak Institutional Equities
KIE analysts expect PPoP to grow 3% YoY/-3% QoQ to Rs 14,287.4 billion, driven by weak NII growth (NIM compression cycle ongoing).
According to the report, loan growth should remain healthy at 17% year-on-year, led by contributions from all sectors, mainly the slowdown in unsecured loans.
“Given the current economic environment, we expect provisions (Rs 1,491.1 crore; down 8% YoY/42% QoQ) to remain low as we are setting slippage at a low level of 2% (Rs 5,000 crore) ) The main focus is on NIM’s progress On the other hand, as cost of funds has not reached its peak, especially as CASA growth slows down, deposit mobilization could be another key area of discussion.”
Momotar Oswal Financial Services
MOFSL expects ICICI Bank’s deposits to grow 17.4% year-on-year to Rs 13.86 trillion in the fourth quarter of FY24. On the other hand, debt is likely to grow by 18% year-on-year to Rs 1.2 trillion.
In terms of asset quality, the brokerage’s gross non-performing asset ratio and net non-performing asset ratio remained unchanged month-on-month, at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively.
